Prediction of Rn-222 in Danish dwellings using geology and house construction information from central databases

A linear regression model has been developed for the prediction of indoor Rn-222 in Danish houses. The model provides proxy radon concentrations for about 21,000 houses in a Danish case-control study on the possible association between residential radon and childhood cancer (primarily leukaemia). The model was calibrated against radon measurements in 3116 houses.

An independent dataset with 788 house measurements was used for model performance assessment. The model includes nine explanatory variables,, of which the most important ones are house type and geology. All explanatory variables are available from central databases. The model was fitted to log-transformed radon concentrations and it has an R-2 of 40%.

The uncertainty associated with individual predictions of (untransformed) radon concentrations is about a factor of 2.0 (one standard deviation). The comparison with the independent test data shows that the model makes sound predictions and that errors of radon predictions are only weakly correlated with the estimates themselves (R-2 = 10%).