Residential heat pumps in the future Danish energy system

Denmark is striving towards 100% renewable energy system in 2050. Residential heat pumps are expected to be a part of that system.We propose two novel approaches to improve the representation of residential heat pumps: Coefficients of performance (COPs) are modelled as dependent on air and ground temperature while installation of ground-source heat pumps is constrained by available ground area.

In this study, TIMES-DK model is utilised to test the effects of improved modelling of residential heat pumps on the Danish energy system until 2050.The analysis of the Danish energy system was done for politically agreed targets which include: at least 50% of electricity consumption from wind power starting from 2020, fossil fuel free heat and power sector from 2035 and 100% renewable energy system starting from 2050.

Residential heat pumps supply around 25% of total residential heating demand after 2035. The improved modelling of residential heat pumps proved to have influence on the results. First, it would be optimal to invest in more ground-source heat pumps, but there is not enough available ground area. Second, the total system costs are higher when COPs are modelled as temperature-dependent compared to fixed COPs over a year.