Conference paper
Behind-the-Meter Energy Flexibility Modelling for Aggregator Operation with a Focus on Uncertainty
Aggregators are expected to become an inevitable entity in future power system operation, playing a key role in unlocking flexibility at the edge of the grid. One of the main barriers to aggregators entering the market is the lack of appropriate models for the price elasticity of flexible demand, which can properly address time dependent uncertainty as well as non-linear and stochastic behavior of end-users in response to time varying prices.
In this paper, we develop a probabilistic price elasticity model utilizing quantile regression and B-splines with penalties. The proposed model is tested using data from residential and industrial customers by assuming automation through energy management systems. Additionally, we show an application of the proposed method in quantifying the number of consumers needed to achieve a certain amount of flexibility through a set of simulation studies.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | IEEE |
Year: | 2021 |
Pages: | 1-6 |
Proceedings: | 2021 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe |
ISBN: | 166544875X and 9781665448758 |
Types: | Conference paper |
DOI: | 10.1109/ISGTEurope52324.2021.9640146 |
ORCIDs: | Blomgren, Emma Margareta Viktoria , Ebrahimy, Razgar , Møller, Jan Kloppenborg , Banaei, Mohsen and Madsen, Henrik |
B-splines Data-driven modelling Flexibility Industrial and residential consumers Quantile regression
B-splines model Data models Elasticity Europe Probabilistic logic Simulation Stochastic processes Uncertainty aggregator operation behind-the-meter energy flexibility modelling data-driven modelling demand side management end-users energy management systems flexible demand industrial and residential consumers industrial customers nonlinear model power grid power grids power market power markets power meters power system operation pricing probabilistic price elasticity model probability quantile regression quantile regression model regression analysis residential customers stochastic behavior stochastic processes time dependent uncertainty time varying prices