A stochastic model simulating the spatiotemporal dynamics of yellow rust on wheat

A stochastic model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics in monocultures is described and applied to the simulation of yellow rust on wheat (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici). The most sensitive parameters of the model are latent period, daily multiplication factor of the disease and median dispersal distance of spores.

The stochasticity of the model leads to little difference in the simulated disease progress over time from one simulation to another, but to significant changes in the spatial distribution of the disease.