Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model.

The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses.

The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue.