Prediction of the failure probability of the overhead power line exposed to large-scale jet fires induced by high-pressure gas leakage

A thermal failure model (TFM) is proposed to predict the failure probability of Aluminum Conductor Steel-Reinforced (ACSR) typed power line close to a large-scale jet fire of leaked high-pressure gases. It introduces a newly developed method for heat transfer from jet fires and a distribution model for conductor failure probability via IEEE Standard 738–2012.

Comparisons covering van der Waals equation, jet flame length correlations (Chamberlain, Schefer, Molkov and Bradley) and thermal radiation models (point source, multi-point source and line source) were made to illustrate priority with respect to experimental measurement of large hydrogen and natural gas jet fires.

Results show that a theoretical framework incorporating van der Waals equation, Molkov's correlation for jet flame length, radiative fraction model and point source model is adequately precise to predict high-pressure leakage process, total flame length and received radiant heat flux (far-field). Predicted total flame lengths of a large jet fire for nearby power lines within 50–200 m to the accident site correspond well to reported results and the conservative hazard ranges are predicted based on harm criteria of wood and Probit equations.

In simulations, an acceptable safety distance for power line carrying 907 A and below is determined to be 150 m.