Conference paper
Monte Carlo Simulations for probabilistic validation of consequence reasoning from Multilevel Flow Modelling
Department of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark1
Automation and Control, Department of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark2
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark3
Statistics and Data Analysis, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark4
Multilevel Flow Modelling can be used to identify causes or consequences of anomalies in process systems. The models can be used to identify numerous possible propagations of causes or effects but cannot distinguish between likely and unlikely causes or effects. We present a method for identifying likely and unlikely effect propagations in a given process window from Monte Carlo Simulations.
We show that the joint probability of effects can be used to determine the probability of individual propagation paths. The analysis allows to identify subsets of the process window where certain effect propagations are more likely. The method enables prompt identification of likely propagations of effects from process anomalies.
| Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | IEEE |
| Year: | 2020 |
| Pages: | 1351-1354 |
| Proceedings: | 25th IEEE International Conference on Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation |
| Series: | Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation (etfa), International Conference on |
| ISBN: | 172818956X , 172818956x , 1728189578 , 9781728189567 and 9781728189574 |
| ISSN: | 19460740 and 19460759 |
| Types: | Conference paper |
| DOI: | 10.1109/ETFA46521.2020.9212179 |
| ORCIDs: | Nielsen, Emil K. , Kirchhübel, Denis and Jørgensen, Thomas Martini |
Consequence prediction Functional Modelling Monte Carlo Simulations Multilevel Flow Modelling
Clustering algorithms Conferences Monte Carlo methods Particle separators Prediction algorithms Predictive models Probabilistic logic consequence reasoning diagnostic reasoning fault diagnosis probabilistic validation probability process anomalies process control process systems process window propagation paths
