Journal article
Climate change, non‐indigenous species and shipping: assessing the risk of species introduction to a high‐ A rctic archipelago
University of Tromsø Tromsø University Museum Kvaløyvegen 30 Tromsø 9037 Norway, University of Tasmania Churchill Avenue Sandy Bay Tas. 7005 Australia1
Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries, and Economics University of Tromsø Tromsø 9037 Norway, University Centre on Svalbard PO Box 156 Longyearbyen 9171 Norway2
Institute of Marine Research PO Box 6404 Tromsø 9294 Norway3
University of Tasmania Churchill Avenue Sandy Bay Tas. 7005 Australia4
Biofouling Solutions PTY LTD 244 Summerleas Rd Kingston Tas. 7050 Australia5
Institute of Marine Research PO Box 1870 Nordnes Bergen 5817 Norway6
Danish Meteorological Institute Lyngbyvej 100 Copenhagen 2100 Denmark7
SINTEF Fisheries & Aquaculture Brattørkaia 17C Trondheim 7010 Norway8
Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 4000 Roskilde Denmark, Greenland Climate Research Centre Greenland Institute of Natural Resources Nuuk Greenland9
University of Tromsø Tromsø University Museum Kvaløyvegen 30 Tromsø 9037 Norway10
...and 0 moreAim Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate will affect the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to the negative effects of non-indigenous species (NIS). In the Arctic, there is a need to better characterize present and future marine biological introduction patterns and processes. We use a vector-based assessment to estimate changes in the vulnerability of a high-Arctic archipelago to marine NIS introduction and establishment.
Location Global, with a case study of Svalbard, Norway. Methods We base our assessment on the level of connectedness to global NIS pools through the regional shipping network and predicted changes in ocean climates. Environmental match of ports connected to Svalbard was evaluated under present and future environmental conditions (2050 and 2100 predicted under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario).
Risk of NIS introduction was then estimated based on the potential for known NIS to be transported (in ballast water or as biofouling), environmental match, and a qualitative estimate of propagule pressure. Results We show that Svalbard will become increasingly vulnerable to marine NIS introduction and establishment.
Over the coming century, sea surface warming at high latitudes is estimated to increase the level of environmental match to nearly one-third of ports previously visited by vessels travelling to Svalbard in 2011 (n = 136). The shipping network will then likely connect Svalbard to a much greater pool of known NIS, under conditions more favourable for their establishment.
Research and fishing vessels were estimated to pose the highest risk of NIS introduction through biofouling, while ballast water discharge is estimated to pose an increased risk by the end of the century. Main conclusions In the absence of focused preventative management, the risk of NIS introduction and establishment in Svalbard, and the wider Arctic, will increase over coming decades, prompting a need to respond in policy and action.
| Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
| Year: | 2014 |
| Pages: | 10-19 |
| ISSN: | 14724642 and 13669516 |
| Types: | Journal article |
| DOI: | 10.1111/ddi.12117 |
