Modelling mode choice in short trips - shifting from car to bicycle

This paper investigates the mode choice behaviour of Danish population from the Greater Copenhagen Area when travelling short trips. Data from the Danish National Transport Survey identify the travel behaviour of the Danish population through interviews collecting travel diaries and socio-economic variables of a representative sample of the population.

The investigated sample includes 11,072 observations. The model considers five alternatives (i.e., car driver, car passenger, public transport, walk and obviously bike), for which level of service variables are calculated through assignment procedures available for each period of the day in which the trip was conducted.

The present study estimates a mixed logit model able to capture taste variations and differentiates travel time parameters across modes. The mixed logit model allows investigating the effect of level of service variables, individual characteristics of the travellers, purpose of the trips and environmental conditions.

Results suggest heterogeneity among cyclists in the sensitivity to travel time, temperature and hilliness. The cost parameter is not significant, probably because of difficulties in the calculation, but possibly because of lower relevance of the cost for short trips. Expectedly, the selection of bicycle as mode for short trips is positively related to owning a bicycle and negatively linked to owning one or more cars.

Urban density has also positive correlation with the selection of sustainable transport modes.