Journal article
Evaluation of temporal surveillance system sensitivity and freedom from bovine viral diarrhea in Danish dairy herds using scenario tree modelling
National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark1
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark2
Statistics and Data Analysis, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark3
Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark4
The temporal sensitivity of the surveillance system (TemSSe) for Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD) in Danish dairy herds was evaluated. Currently, the Danish antibody blocking ELISA is used to test quarterly bulk tank milk (BTM). To optimize the surveillance system as an early warning system, we considered the possibility of using the SVANOVIR ELISA, as this test has been shown to detect BVD-positive herds earlier than the blocking ELISA in BTM tests.
Information from data (2010) and outputs from two published stochastic models were fed into a stochastic scenario tree to estimate the TemSSe. For that purpose we considered: the risk of BVD introduction into the dairy population, the ELISA used and the high risk period (HRP) from BVD introduction to testing (at 90 or 365 days).
The effect of introducing one persistently infected (PI) calf or one transiently infected (TI) milking cow into 1 (or 8) dairy herd(s) was investigated. Additionally we estimated the confidence in low (PLow) herd prevalence (
| Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | BioMed Central |
| Year: | 2016 |
| Pages: | 118 |
| Journal subtitle: | Bmc Series – Open, Inclusive and Trusted |
| ISSN: | 17466148 |
| Types: | Journal article |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12917-016-0744-2 |
| ORCIDs: | Foddai, Alessandro , Stockmarr, Anders and Boklund, Anette |
