Vurdering af konsekvenser på dansk område af et alvorligt havari på kernekraftværket Ignalina i Litauen

The radiological consequences in Denmark are assessed, following a hypothetical severe reactor accident in the Lithuanian nuclear power plant at Ignalina. The release of radionuclides and subsequent spreading in the atmosphere is initially assumed to be similar in magnitude to that of the Chernobyl accident in April 1986.

The atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Ignalina power plant is modelled as a stochastic process, and a probability distribution is estimated for the deposition on Danish territory, based on the deposition pattern of radiocaesium after the Chernobyl accident. At the 1% probability level of the atmospheric transport and deposition, the collective radiation dose to the Danish population amounts to 100,000 manSv, assuming the accident to happen in the summer months shortly before harvest.

The most important pathway for radiation dose to the population will be ingestion of contaminated food,and restrictions on foodstuff are likely to be required. (au) 15 tabs., 7 ills., 28 refs..