Journal article
Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for food allergen risk assessment: risk outcome and uncertainty comparisons
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark1
Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail2
Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research3
National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark4
Research Group for Food Allergy, National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark5
University of Nebraska6
Peer-reviewed probabilistic methods already predict the probability of an allergic reaction resulting from an accidental exposure to food allergens, however, the methods calculate it in different ways. The available methods utilize the same three major input parameters in the risk model: the risk is estimated from the amount of food consumed, the concentration of allergen in the contaminated product and the distribution of thresholds among allergic persons.
However, consensus is lacking about the optimal method to estimate the risk of allergic reaction and the associated uncertainty. This study aims to compare estimation of the risk of allergic reaction and associated uncertainty using different methods and suggest improvements. Four cases were developed based on the previous publications and the risk estimations were compared.
The risk estimation was found to agree within 0.5% with the different simulation cases. Finally, an uncertainty analysis method is also presented in order to evaluate the uncertainty propagation from the input parameters to the risk.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group UK |
Year: | 2019 |
Pages: | 18206 |
ISSN: | 20452322 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-019-54844-1 |
ORCIDs: | Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard and Brockhoff, Per B. |