Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts

A simple non-linear stochastic two state, discrete-time model is presented. The interaction between benthic and pelagic vegetation in aquatic ecosystems subject to changing external nutrient loading is described by the nonlinear functions. The dynamical behavior of the deterministic part of the model illustrates that hysteresis effect and regime shifts can be obtained for a limited range of parameter values only.

The effect of multiplicative noise components entering at different levels of the model is presented and discussed. Including noise leads to very different results on the stability of regimes, depending on how the noise propagates through the system. The dynamical properties of a system should therefore be described through propagation of the state distributions rather than the state means and consequently, stochastic models should be compared in a probabilistic framework.