Journal article
Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends
Norwegian University of Science and Technology1
SINTEF2
Dynamical Systems, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark3
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark4
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems5
CITIES - Centre for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems, Centers, Technical University of Denmark6
Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead.
We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.
Language: | English |
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Year: | 2019 |
Pages: | 102-119 |
ISSN: | 18784356 and 09571787 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001 |
ORCIDs: | Madsen, H. |