Journal article
Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research1
Sustainability, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark2
Imperial College London3
Genillard & Co. GmbH4
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences5
Pannon Pro Innovations Ltd.6
Ooasis Loss Modelling Framework Ltd.7
Budapest Sewage Works Pte. Ltd8
Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark9
Climate Risks and Economics, Sustainability, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark10
...and 0 moreMajor river and flash flood events have accumulated in Central and Eastern Europe over the last decade reminding the public as well as the insurance sector that climate related risks are likely to become even more damaging and prevalent as climate patterns change. However, information about current and future hydro-climatic extremes is often not available.
The Future Danube Model (FDM) is an end-user driven multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region that has been developed to provide climate services related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heat waves, floods, and droughts under recent and scenario conditions. As a result, it provides spatially consistent information on extreme events and natural resources throughout the entire Danube catchment.
It can be used to quantify climate risks, to support the implementation of the EU framework directives, for climate informed urban and land use planning, water resources management, and for climate proofing of large scale infrastructural planning including cost benefit analysis. The model suite consists of five individual and exchangeable modules: a weather and climate module, a hydrological module, a risk module, an adaptation module, and a web-based visualization module.
They are linked in such a way that output from one module can either be used standalone or fed into subsequent modules. The utility of the tool has been tested by experts and stakeholders. The results show that more and more intense hydrological extremes are likely to occur under climate scenario conditions, e.g. higher order floods may occur more frequently.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | Elsevier |
Year: | 2018 |
Pages: | 14-26 |
ISSN: | 24058807 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.001 |
ORCIDs: | 0000-0003-2778-3861 , 0000-0002-6399-9566 , 0000-0002-3173-7019 , Nielsen, Marie Rosenlund , Kaspersen, Per Skougaard and Drews, Martin |
Climate change Climate services Danube River basin Flood risk SDG 13 - Climate Action SDG 15 - Life on Land
H1-99 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General)