Conference paper
On the quality and value of probabilistic forecasts of wind generation
While most of the current forecasting methods provide single estimates of future wind generation, some methods now allow one to have probabilistic predictions of wind power. They are often given in the form of prediction intervals or quantile forecasts. Such forecasts, since they include the uncertainty information, can be seen as optimal for the management or trading of wind generation.
This paper explores the differences and relations between the quality (i.e. statistical performance) and the operational value of these forecasts. An application is presented on the use of probabilistic predictions for bidding in a European electricity market. The benefits of a probabilistic view of wind power forecasting are clearly demonstrated.
| Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | IEEE |
| Year: | 2006 |
| Pages: | 1-7 |
| Proceedings: | 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems |
| ISBN: | 917178585X , 917178585x and 9789171785855 |
| Types: | Conference paper |
| DOI: | 10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360290 |
| ORCIDs: | Pinson, Pierre |
Economic forecasting Electricity supply industry European electricity market Power generation Power generation economics Uncertainty Weather forecasting Wind energy Wind energy generation Wind forecasting Wind power Wind power generation decision-making evaluation methods operational value probabilistic forecast probabilistic forecasting probability weather forecasting wind generation wind power wind power plants wind power prediction
