Conference paper
Modeling of spatial dependence in wind power forecast uncertainty
It is recognized today that short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. When considering different areas covering a region, they are produced independently, and thus neglect the interdependence structure of prediction errors, induced by movement of meteorological fronts, or more generally by inertia of meteorological systems.
This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate interdependent scenarios of wind generation for spatially distributed wind power production for specific look-ahead times. The approach is applied to the case of western Denmark split in 5 zones, for a total capacity of more than 2.1 GW.
The interest of the methodology for improving the resolution of probabilistic forecasts, for a range of decision-making problems, or simply for better understanding the characteristics of forecast uncertainty, is discussed.
| Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | IEEE |
| Year: | 2008 |
| Pages: | 1-9 |
| Proceedings: | 10th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems |
| ISBN: | 193432521X , 193432521x , 1934325406 , 9781934325216 and 9781934325407 |
| Types: | Conference paper |
| ORCIDs: | Pinson, Pierre |
Distributed power generation Meteorology Power generation Predictive models Uncertainty Weather forecasting Wind energy Wind energy generation Wind forecasting Wind power generation decision making decision-making problems load forecasting meteorological systems prediction errors probabilistic forecasting probability spatially distributed wind power production western Denmark wind generation wind power wind power forecast uncertainty
