Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments.

Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all timescales from the short (for dispatching purposes), where statistical models work best, to the very long (for infrastructure planning), where physics-based models are more accurate.

Power system regulations are driving the development of these techniques. This application also provides a good basis for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance