ELSE. El-service modellen. En prognosemodel for servicesektorens elforbrug : En prognosemodel for servicesektorens elforbrug

The main objective of the project was to analyze the development in electricity demand in the service sector, and using this as starting point to develop a model for forecasting and sensitivity analysis. The developed model, ELSE, combines the econometric top-down approach with the bottom-up approach, based on simulation techniques.

The ELSE-model provides the possibility of evaluating the future electricity demand related to either economic assumptions (development in production, energy prices etc.) or to technical assumptions on penetration and efficiency improvements for end-use technologies. A baseline forecast can then be computed as a weighted average of the results of the two above-mentioned approaches.

The report contains the econometric and technical analysis of the service branches, and the ELSE-model is described. The results are illustrated for a baseline forecast and a number of sensitivity analyses. Finally, the ELSE-model is implemented as a computational tool, making it easy to construct new baselines and perform sensitivity analysis. (au) (68 tabs., 55 ills., 20 refs.).