Case Study-based Prefeasibility Assessment of Offshore Wind Resources in Egypt

This report describes how offshore wind farm case studies, based on detailed calculation of wind resources starting at individual wind turbine level, can provide another framework for assessment of offshore wind resources in Egypt. This approach complements the previous studies published by World Bank which take a large-scale top-down approach.

This study will also outline considerations to mitigate environmental impact at early prefeasibility stage using GIS analysis, include estimates of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and include a discussion on scalability of offshore wind farm deployment. Energy yields have been estimated for six hypothetical wind farms.

Five of the wind farms have an installed capacity of around 990 MW and a sixth has an installed capacity one quarter of that with 247.5 MW. For the 990 MW wind farms, the estimated Annual Energy Productions (AEP) range from 2188 GWh per year to 4958 GWh per year. For the 247.5 MW wind farm, the estimated AEP is 1349 GWh representing a 62% capacity factor.

There is not a lot of area available for bottom-fixed wind farms in the offshore high wind resource areas of Egypt (Gulf of Suez and Red Sea), based on the current assumptions for the spatial constraints and exclusion zones. Restrictions due to shipping constraints and coastal buffers significantly impact suitable areas for large floating wind farms in the Gulf of Suez.

While in the Red Sea there appears to be a very large area suitable for floating. The LCOE estimates vary from €96-127 /MWh for a bottom-fixed wind farm in Gulf of Suez to €276-361 /MWh for a floating wind farm in the south of the Red Sea. The relatively low LCOE of the lowest cost case follows from two key characteristics: (1) it has an exceptionally high wind resource (capacity factor of 62%) and it uses a bottom-fixed foundation.

Much of the LCOE gap between the baseline case (€58 /MWh, for Western European Markets) and the Egypt cases can be explained by financing costs. Based on the assumptions of this study, considering the available suitable areas, scaling up the number of wind farms similar to our case studies, and assuming relatively conservative installed capacity densities, (to keep mesoscale wind farm wake loss impacts small), we may estimate capacity of around 5.5 GW for bottom-fixed and 46 GW for floating wind in the Egyptian waters.

The estimated total annual yield is approximately 176000 GWh (or 176 TWh) for the 51.5 GW of installed capacity offshore. Putting this into context we can compare to IEA data for Egyptian electricity final consumption of 160000 GWh in 2019.