Optimization of the electricity and heating sectors development in the North Sea region towards 2050

Ambitious goals have been established in the EU to decarbonize the energy system towards 2050. This paper investigates the optimal development of the heat and power system of the North Sea region. The optimization of investment, decommissioning and transmission expansion has been performed with the open source energy system model Balmorel.

The results show a large deployment of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), power transmission, Power-To-Heat (P2H), heat storage, and flexible bio fueled Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants towards 2050. Most of the electricity generation is expected to be provided by wind, solar PV, hydro and nuclear sources (96% by 2045, 63% just wind and solar).

On the heating sector, most of the generation is expected to come from bio fuel CHP plants and P2H (68% and 24% by 2045 respectively), especially to satisfy the high temperature demand of industry. P2H increases the power load 10% by 2045. This development, largely influenced by the assumed increase of the CO2 tax and decrease in VRE costs, leads to a massive reduction of the CO2 emissions of the system, although not to a complete elimination of them.