Journal article
Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents
Danish Meteorological Institute1
Norwegian Meteorological Institute2
Swedish Radiation Safety Authority3
Danish Emergency Management Agency4
Department of Physics, Technical University of Denmark5
Radiation Physics, Department of Physics, Technical University of Denmark6
Swedish Defence Research Agency7
Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release.
A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.
Language: | English |
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Year: | 2020 |
Pages: | 106356 |
ISSN: | 18791700 and 0265931x |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356 |
ORCIDs: | Lauritzen, Bent |