Probabilistic production simulation including CHP plants

A probabilistic production simulation method is presented for an energy system containing combined heat and power plants. The method permits incorporation of stochastic failures (forced outages) of the plants and is well suited for analysis of the dimensioning of the system, that is, for finding the appropriate types and capacities of production plants in relation to expansion planning.

The method is in the tradition of similar approaches for the analysis of power systems, based on the load duration curve. The present method extends on this by considering a two-dimensional load duration curve where the two dimensions represent heat and power. The method permits the analysis of a combined heat and power system which includes all the basic relevant types of plants, viz., condensing plants, back pressure plants, extraction plants and heat plants.

The focus of the method is on the situation where the heat side has priority. This implies that on the power side there may be imbalances between demand and production. The method permits quantification of the expected power overflow, the expected unserviced power demand, and the expected unserviced heat demand.

It is shown that a discretization method as well as double Fourier series may be applied in algorithms based on the method. (au) 1 tab., 28 ills., 21 refs..