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Conference paper

Setup for Scenario-free Modelling of Urban Flood Risk in Non-stationary Climate and Urban Development Conditions

By Löwe, Roland1,2; Urich, Christian3; Kulahci, Murat4,5; Radhakrishnan, Mohanasundar6; Deletic, Ana3; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten1,2

From

Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark1

Urban Water Systems, Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark2

Monash University3

Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark4

Statistics and Data Analysis, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark5

Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities6

An early flood warning system has been developed for urban catchments and is currently running in online operation in Copenhagen. The system is highly dependent on the quality of rainfall forecast inputs. An investigation of precipitation inputs from Radar Nowcast (RN), Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with assimilation of radar and cloud data (RA3), and Ensemble NWP with 25 members (S05) is conducted by comparing against rain gauge measurements and flood extent.

Despite lower spatial and temporal resolution, the ensemble product seems promising for forecasting extreme events. A combination of the three forecast products is expected to yield the optimal input for flood warning.

Language: English
Year: 2017
Proceedings: 14th IWA/IAHR International Conference on Urban Drainage 2017
Types: Conference paper
ORCIDs: Löwe, Roland , Kulahci, Murat and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

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