Journal article
Consensus Modeling of Median Chemical Intake for the U.S. Population Based on Predictions of Exposure Pathways
United States Environmental Protection Agency1
ARC Arnot Research & Consulting Inc.2
York University Toronto3
University of California at San Diego4
EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory5
Sustainability, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark6
Quantitative Sustainability Assessment, Sustainability, Society and Economics, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark7
Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark8
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor9
University of Texas at Dallas10
...and 0 morePrioritizing the potential risk posed to human health by chemicals requires tools that can estimate exposure from limited information. In this study chemical structure and physicochemical properties were used to predict the probability that a chemical might be associated with any of four exposure pathways leading from sources – consumer (near-field), dietary, far-field industrial, and far-field pesticide – to the general population.
The balanced accuracies of these source-based exposure pathway models range from 73-81%, with the error rate for identifying positive chemicals ranging from 17-36%. We then used exposure pathways to organize predictions from thirteen different exposure models as well as other predictors of human intake rates.
We created a consensus, meta-model using the Systematic Empirical Evaluation of Models (SEEM) framework in which the predictors of exposure were combined by pathway and weighted according to predictive ability for chemical intake rates inferred from human biomonitoring data for 114 chemicals. The consensus model yields an R2 of ~0.8.
We extrapolate to predict relevant pathway(s), median intake rate, and credible interval for 479,926 chemicals, mostly with minimal exposure information. This approach identifies 1,880 chemicals for which the median population intake rates may exceed 0.1 mg/kg bodyweight/day, while there is 95% confidence that the median intake rate is below 1 µg/kg BW/day for 478,046 compounds.
Language: | English |
---|---|
Publisher: | American Chemical Society |
Year: | 2019 |
Pages: | 719-732 |
ISSN: | 15205851 and 0013936x |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1021/acs.est.8b04056 |
ORCIDs: | 0000-0001-6698-2316 , Fantke, Peter , 0000-0002-7846-9760 , 0000-0001-9547-1654 , 0000-0001-6955-4210 , 0000-0001-5703-0698 , 0000-0003-2098-8274 , 0000-0002-7001-2555 and 0000-0002-4024-534X |