Journal article
Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod
Section for Management Systems, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark1
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark2
Section for Population Ecology and Genetics, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark3
Section for Ocean Ecology and Climate, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark4
Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty.
The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival.
A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | The Royal Society |
Year: | 2010 |
Pages: | 2121-2130 |
ISSN: | 14712954 and 09628452 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2010.0353 |
ORCIDs: | Lindegren, Martin , Nielsen, Anders , Brander, Keith and MacKenzie, Brian |