Journal article
Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power
Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue. Despite the fact that increasing accuracy in spot forecasts may reduce penalties, this paper shows that, if such forecasts are accompanied with information on their uncertainty, i.e., in the form of predictive distributions, then this can be the basis for defining advanced strategies for market participation.
Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. This paper formulates a general methodology for deriving optimal bidding strategies based on probabilistic forecasts of wind generation, as well as on modeling of the sensitivity a wind power producer may have to regulation costs.
The benefits resulting from the application of these strategies are clearly demonstrated on the test case of the participation of a multi-MW wind farm in the Dutch electricity market over a year.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | IEEE |
Year: | 2007 |
Pages: | 1148-1156 |
ISSN: | 08858950 and 15580679 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1109/TPWRS.2007.901117 |
ORCIDs: | Pinson, Pierre |
Costs Decision-making Dutch electricity market Economic forecasting Electricity supply industry Power generation Predictive models Uncertainty Wind energy Wind energy generation Wind forecasting Wind power generation costing liberalized electricity market load forecasting optimal bidding strategies power generation economics power markets regulation costs short-term probabilistic forecasts wind farm wind generation trading wind power plants