Journal article
New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue
Norwegian Meteorological Institute1
Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark2
Systems Analysis, Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark3
Center for International Climate and Energy Research4
Norwegian Computing Center5
University of Washington6
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research7
National Center for Atmospheric Research8
Finnish Meteorological Institute9
Statistics Denmark10
Danish Meteorological Institute11
...and 1 moreClimate simulation data comprise a range of different phenomena with complex and interacting processes. Yet our understanding of the climate is incomplete despite the huge volumes of data, of which only a small fraction has been explored, and many questions remain, particularly those on the character and origin of uncertainties associated with model simulations and how further modelling efforts can improve understanding.
Here, we question whether climate model information could be used more effectively and how so-called 'ensembles of opportunity' should be interpreted. Statisticians can contribute substantially to designing 'smarter' ensemble experiments, improving the distillation of information from ensembles, and helping interpret the relative merits of additional simulations.
Future progress may be enhanced by increasing collaborations with statisticians.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group UK |
Year: | 2017 |
Pages: | 697-703 |
ISSN: | 17586798 and 1758678x |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3393 |
ORCIDs: | Drews, Martin , 0000-0002-5969-4508 and 0000-0003-2491-1020 |