Journal article
Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: A multiple method evaluation for management application
Section for Management Systems, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark1
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark2
Wageningen University & Research3
University of Rostock4
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences5
Institute of Food Safety Animal Health and Environment6
University of Hamburg7
Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea.
We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | Public Library of Science |
Year: | 2012 |
Pages: | e38410 |
ISSN: | 19326203 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0038410 |
ORCIDs: | Lindegren, Martin |