Resilience of Networked Infrastructure with Evolving Component Conditions: Pavement Network Application

This paper deals with quantifying the resilience of a network of pavements. Calculations were carried out by modeling network performance under a set of possible damage-meteorological scenarios with known probability of occurrence. Resilience evaluation was performed a priori while accounting for optimal preparedness decisions and additional response actions that can be taken under each of the scenarios.

Unlike the common assumption that the pre-event condition of all system components is uniform, fixed, and pristine, component condition evolution was incorporated herein. For this purpose, the health of the individual system components immediately prior to hazard event impact, under all considered scenarios, was associated with a serviceability rating.

This rating was projected to reflect both natural deterioration and any intermittent improvements due to maintenance. The scheme was demonstrated for a hypothetical case study involving LaGuardia Airport. Results show that resilience can be impacted by the condition of the infrastructure elements, their natural deterioration processes, and prevailing maintenance plans.

The findings imply that, in general, upper bound values are reported in ordinary resilience work, and that including evolving component conditions is of value. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.