Journal article
Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark1
Section for Ocean Ecology and Climate, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark2
Section for Management Systems, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark3
Section for Population Ecology and Genetics, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark4
Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea.
Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models).
However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | Springer Netherlands |
Year: | 2012 |
Pages: | 626-636 |
Journal subtitle: | A Journal of the Human Environment |
ISSN: | 16547209 , 00447447 and 03010325 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y |
ORCIDs: | Mackenzie, Brian R , Lindegren, Martin , Neuenfeldt, Stefan and Eero, Margit |
Animals Atmosphere–ocean models Baltic Sea Baltic States Climate Change Climate change Downscaling Ecology Environment Environment, general Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology Environmental Management Fishes Meteorology/Climatology Models, Theoretical Oceans and Seas Physical Geography Population Dynamics SC7 Sprat Temperature