Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from their use in decision-making.

So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented.

Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.