Journal article
The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel1
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research2
University of Turku3
Finnish Environment Institute4
Stockholm University5
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark6
Section for Oceans and Arctic, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark7
Technical University of Denmark8
National Marine Fisheries Research Institute9
Johann Heinrich von Thunen Institute10
University of Tartu11
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute12
Luleå University of Technology13
Linköping University14
Åbo Akademi University15
Aarhus University16
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences17
University of Warsaw18
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland19
Helsinki University of Technology20
University of Gothenburg21
...and 11 moreCoastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management.
We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems.
The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea.
The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
Year: | 2018 |
Pages: | eaar8195 |
ISSN: | 23752548 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1126/sciadv.aar8195 |
ORCIDs: | 0000-0002-4660-6919 , 0000-0003-4910-5236 , 0000-0001-5118-2308 , 0000-0003-0433-4086 , 0000-0003-1190-4550 , 0000-0002-4366-0186 , 0000-0003-0176-7986 , 0000-0003-4782-9468 , 0000-0001-6346-2585 , 0000-0002-5370-1236 , MacKenzie, Brian R. , 0000-0002-8767-1880 , 0000-0003-2742-6063 , 0000-0003-0420-349X , 0000-0002-0722-6083 and 0000-0003-0016-6118 |
Anthropogenic pressures Atmospheric Properties BLACK-SEA CLIMATE-CHANGE Catchments Climate change DAB LIMANDA-LIMANDA EAST CHINA SEA ECOLOGICAL REGIME SHIFTS Economic and social effects Ecosystem functions Ecosystems Environmental Engineering Environmental management GOBY NEOGOBIUS-MELANOSTOMUS Governance structures Harmful substances Integrated management MARINE PROTECTED AREAS MULTIDISCIPLINARY Management strategies ORGANOCHLORINE CONTAMINANTS SDG 13 - Climate Action Scientific foundations Social Sciences Sustainable resource use TROPHIC CASCADES WATER-QUALITY