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Journal article

Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends

In Utilities Policy 2019, Volume 58, pp. 102-119
From

Norwegian University of Science and Technology1

SINTEF2

Dynamical Systems, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark3

Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark4

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems5

CITIES - Centre for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems, Centers, Technical University of Denmark6

Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead.

We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.

Language: English
Year: 2019
Pages: 102-119
ISSN: 18784356 and 09571787
Types: Journal article
DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2019.04.001
ORCIDs: Madsen, H.

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