Modelling the Impact of Migration on HIV Persistency in Ghana

Migrants may be exposed to health risks before, during and after leaving their countries of origin. Unfortunately, knowledge about the health status of migrants is often limited because they are often excluded from surveys. This paper extends the susceptible-exposed-infective-removed model to handle the assumption of homogeneous mixing, the incorporation of migration and the induced death rates of the disease in modelling the spread of HIV/AIDS.

These extensions demonstrate that the impact of migration on HIV persistency is critical when attempting to predict where and how fast the disease will propagate. The spectral analysis of a time series was used to determine the frequency at which the disease is spread and its equilibrium levels. The results indicate that with the persistent flow of migration into a country, the disease status changes from epidemic to endemic.

If the direct flow of migration into the population is restricted, the persistent spread of the disease can be minimised.