A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met.

Results from the modelling are global and regional energy consumption, emission of greenhouse gasses and thereby potential increase in global mean temperature. Furthermore, total system costs are compared to a reference scenario. Existing analysis with TIAM shows different ways of reaching the 2 °C target (increase in global mean temperature) and also how uncertainty on different factors influences the optimal solution.

The main conclusion from existing analysis with TIAM is that the 2 °C target is possible to reach, but it will be expensive. Another very important point is that if uncertainty on the value of the climate sensitivity (Cs) is taken into account then the optimal strategy calls for early action compared to a full foresight optimisation using the most probable value of Cs.