Journal article
Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic
University of Edinburgh1
Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital2
University of Cambridge3
Erasmus University Medical Center4
Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute for Infectious Diseases5
Naval Medical Research Unit6
Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine7
UK Health Security Agency8
Liberian Institute for Biomedical Research9
Institut Pasteur de Dakar10
University of Sierra Leone11
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center12
Kenema Government Hospital13
University of Liverpool14
University of Makeni15
Chinese Academy of Sciences16
University of Bristol17
University of Birmingham18
Tulane University19
Institut Pasteur20
Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology21
Wellcome Sanger Institute22
University of Southampton23
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention24
Scripps Research Institute25
Sierra Leone Ministry of Social Welfare, Gender and Children's Affairs26
Ministry of Health Liberia27
World Health Organization Guinea28
World Health Organization29
Redeemer's University30
University of Sydney31
Ministry of Health and Sanitation32
Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene33
KU Leuven34
National Institutes of Health35
Gamal Abdel Nasser University of Conakry36
University of California at Los Angeles37
University of Oxford38
Broad Institute of Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology39
United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases40
National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark41
Virology, Division for Diagnostics & Scientific Advice, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark42
...and 32 moreThe 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations.
Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions.
Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.
Language: | English |
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Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Year: | 2017 |
Pages: | 309-315 |
Journal subtitle: | International Weekly Journal of Science |
ISSN: | 14764687 and 00280836 |
Types: | Journal article |
DOI: | 10.1038/nature22040 |
ORCIDs: | Arias Esteban, Armando |