Computer simulation for risk management: Hydrogen refueling stations and water supply of a large region

Risk management of complex environments needs the supportive tools provided by computer models and simulation. During time, various tools have been developed and been applied with different degree of success. The still lasting increase in computer power and the associated development potentials stimulate and promote their application within risk management.

Today, computer supported models as fault trees, event trees and Bayesian networks are commonly regarded and applied as standard tools for reliability and risk practitioners. There are though some important features that hardly can be captured by the conventional reliability analysis models and systems analysis methods.

An improvement and alternative to the conventional approach is seen in using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) models that can better account for the dynamic dimensions of the systems. The paper will describe the authors’ experience in applying DES models to the analysis of large infrastructures for refueling stations and water supply.

Two case studies are described which are concerned with the inherently safer supply and storage of hydrogen at refueling stations and an established drinking water supply system of a large metropolitan area, respectively. For both, the simulation aims at identifying points of potential improvement from the reliability point of view.

This allows setting up a list of activities and safety measures to reduce risk and possible losses and mitigate the consequences of accidents. Based on the cases presented the advantages of DES modeling over the conventional models will be exhibited and discussed