Conference paper
Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios
Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often at the expense of a high computational burden.
Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records.
| Language: | English |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | IEEE |
| Year: | 2017 |
| Pages: | 1-6 |
| Proceedings: | 12th IEEE Power and Energy Society PowerTech Conference |
| ISBN: | 1509042377 , 1509042385 , 9781509042371 and 9781509042388 |
| Types: | Conference paper |
| DOI: | 10.1109/PTC.2017.7981155 |
| ORCIDs: | Koivisto, Matti Juhani , Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio and Sorensen, Poul |
Forecast uncertainty Mathematical model Power system simulation Power systems Predictive models Production Solar power Time series analysis Wind forecasting photovoltaic generation photovoltaic power systems power system planning power system simulation power systems operation power systems planning regional PV production regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios
