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Conference paper

Forecast generation for real-time control of urban drainage systems using greybox modelling and radar rainfall

In Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics — 2012

By Löwe, Roland1,2; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen3,4; Madsen, Henrik1,2

From

Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark1

Mathematical Statistics, Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark2

Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark3

Urban Water Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark4

We present stochastic flow forecasts to be used in a real-time control setup for urban drainage systems. The forecasts are generated using greybox models with rain gauge and radar rainfall observations as input. Predictions are evaluated as intervals rather than just mean values. We obtain satisfactory predictions for the smaller catchment but rather large uncertainties for the bigger catchment where the applied storage cascade seems too simple.

Radar rainfall introduces more uncertainty into the flow forecast model estimation. However, the radar rainfall forecasts also result in a slightly improved point prediction of flows which we aim to exploit with a modified estimation approach in the future.

Language: English
Year: 2012
Proceedings: 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Types: Conference paper
ORCIDs: Löwe, Roland , Mikkelsen, Peter Steen and Madsen, Henrik

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