Scenarios for sustainable heat supply in cities – case of Helsingør, Denmark

The Danish municipality of Helsingør can achieve 30% of its CO2 emission reduction by transforming its heat supply. We model Helsingør's heating system from a socio- and private-economic perspective, develop energy scenarios, and conduct an iterative process of cost curves and energy modelling to derive optimal supply and savings mix for two scenarios: Business-As-Usual 2030 (BAU2030) and REnewableS (RES2030).

The results show that without forbidding oil and natural gas boilers (BAU2030), it pays off to deploy between 25-29% heat savings and 31-49% DH (district heating). With the restriction (RES2030), it pays off to implement between 27-33% heat savings and 68-71% DH. However, the results are sensitive to DH price and CO2 emissions related to electricity production.

Although the findings of the study are mainly applicable for Helsingør, the combined cost curve and energy modelling method is useful in planning for any heat supply and demand configuration, geographical location and scale.