Printed book
Mesoscale wind fluctuations over Danish waters
Mesoscale wind fluctuations affect the large scale integration of wind power because they undermine the day-ahead predictability of wind speed and power production, and because they can result in large fluctuations in power generation that must be balanced using reserve power. Large fluctuations in generated power are a particular problem for offshore wind farms because the typically high concentration of turbines within a limited geographical area means that fluctuations can be correlated across large numbers of turbines.
Furthermore, organised mesoscale structures that often form over water, such as convective rolls and cellular convection, have length scales of tens of kilometers, and can cause large wind fluctuations on a time scale of around an hour. This thesis is an exploration of the predictability of mesoscale wind fluctuations using observations from the world's first two large offshore wind farms - Horns Rev I in the North Sea, and Nysted in the Baltic Sea.
The thesis begins with a climatological analysis of wind fluctuations on time scales of 1-10 hours at the two sites. A novel method for calculating conditional climatologies of spectral information is proposed, based on binning and averaging the time axis of the Hilbert spectrum. Results reveal clear patterns between wind fluctuations and locally observed meteorological conditions.
The analysis is expanded by classifying wind fluctuations on time scales of 1-3 hours according to synoptic patterns, satellite pictures and wind classes. Results indicate that cold air outbreaks and open cellular convection are a significant contributor to mesoscale wind variability at Horns Rev. The predictability of mesoscale wind fluctuations is tested by implementing standard statistical models that relate local wind variability to parameters based on a large scale weather analysis.
The models show some skill, but only achieve a 15% improvement on a persistence forecast.
Language: | English |
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Year: | 2010 |
Pages: | 184 s. |
Series: | Risø-phd--70(en) |
ISBN: | 8755038646 and 9788755038646 |
Types: | Printed book |