Probabilistic assessment of light water reactor fuel performance

A computer system for the statistical evaluation of LWR fuel performance has been developed. The computer code FRP, Fuel Reliability Predictor, calculates the distributions for parameters characterizing the fuel performance and failure probability. The statistical methods employed are either Monte Carlo simulationsor a low order Taylor approximation.

Included in the computer system is a deterministic fuel performance code, which has been verified by comparison with data from irradiation experiments. The distributions for all material data utilized in the fuel simulations are estimations from the best available information in the literature. For the failure prediction, a stress corrosion failure creterion has been derived.

The failure criterion is based on data from out-of-reactor stress corrosion experiments performed on unirradiated and irradiated zircaloy with iodine present. By means of an example the typical distributions of the variables characterizing the fuel performance and the accuracy of the methods themselve3 have been investigated.

The application of the computer system is illustrated by a number of examples, these include the evaluation of irradiation experiments, design comparisons, and analyse of minor accidents.