Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way.

The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements.

The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions.

COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990.

The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO_2 capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies.

The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990.